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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."